The realization of such a vision would change how all of us do business, live our lives, and govern our societies - but to date, we’ve never even had more than 13 people in space at one time, leaving that dream as little more than science fiction. As far back as the 1970s, research commissioned by NASA predicted the rise of a space-based economy that would supply the demands of hundreds, thousands, even millions of humans living in space, dwarfing the space-for-earth economy (and, eventually, the entire terrestrial economy as well). In contrast, the space-for-space economy - that is, goods and services produced in space for use in space, such as mining the Moon or asteroids for material with which to construct in-space habitats or supply refueling depots - has struggled to get off the ground. Decreasing costs for launch and space hardware in general have enticed new entrants into this market, and companies in a variety of industries have already begun leveraging satellite technology and access to space to drive innovation and efficiency in their earthbound products and services.
This economy is booming, and though research shows that it faces the challenges of overcrowding and monopolization that tend to arise whenever companies compete for a scarce natural resource, projections for its future are optimistic. The space-for-earth economy includes telecommunications and internet infrastructure, earth observation capabilities, national security satellites, and more. In 2019, 95% of the estimated $366 billion in revenue earned in the space sector was from the space-for-earth economy: that is, goods or services produced in space for use on earth. The implications - for business, policy, and society at large - are hard to overstate. It was the first significant step towards building an economy both in space and for space. Last year, however, we crossed an important threshold: For the first time in human history, humans accessed space via a vehicle built and owned not by any government, but by a private corporation with its sights set on affordable space settlement. But while tech leaders promise us moon bases and settlements on Mars, the space economy has thus far remained distinctly local - at least in a cosmic sense. There’s no shortage of hype surrounding the commercial space industry.
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